UFC 325 Main Card is Live Tonight at 9:00 PM ET
All odds provided by DraftKings and UFC
(Main card picks listed at the bottom of the article)
Main Event Introduction
Just seven days and nights have passed since UFC 324 in Las Vegas. Just seven suns and moons have risen and fallen. Nevertheless, despite the short duration elapsed, the most prominent promotion in combat sports returns tonight with another numbered event and championship showdown.
The octagon ships off to a distant land where insects grow twice as large and mammals hop around carrying their offspring in pouches.
Yes, that’s right…UFC 325 will commence Saturday from Down Under.
Of course, as any diehard, or even casual, fan could guess, the headlining face of the imminent card will be no other than the hometown hero, the fighting pride of Australia, current UFC featherweight champ, Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski.
The mixed martial arts legend will guard the 145-pound strap on a sixth occasion (his first defense in his current tenure as reigning champion). Yet, in this particular instance, a familiar foe seeks redemption. After losing to Volkanovski in a battle for the vacant featherweight title at UFC 314 last April, Brazilian phenom Diego Lopes will challenge his Australian rival for the throne once again.
Rematch Review
As with any looming rematch, all predictive pursuits must first draw from the results of the prequel. The inaugural meeting between Volkanovski and Lopes would unfold as a return to form for the Aussie.
Prior to UFC 314, Volk had endured consecutive knockout defeats at the hands of the two very best fighters on the planet, Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. Although doubters insisted the prime years of Volkanovski had fled, the veteran produced a vintage performance in the first war with Lopes.
Despite a five-inch height disadvantage, Volk excelled in maintaining a long distance and dissecting Lopes from the outside. In his calculated approach, the champion kept his opponent at bay with a flurry of snappy jabs and swift calf legs. Eventually, utilizing these preliminary attacks as setups, he exploded into close range and unleash combinations.
From within the pocket, Volkanovski would very often conclude his series of punches with a left hook. The long angular strike allowed him to push off the front foot and propel himself out of range, while simultaneously landing a significant shot over the active hands of Lopes.
Additionally, Volk substantially eclipsed Lopes in regards to volume and variety of weapons. The Australian assailant flawlessly mixed up his tactics, complementing his boxing with both low and high kicks, and occasionally switching levels with takedown attempts. At the end of five rounds, each of the three judges deemed Volkanovski the victor.
However, the unanimous decision contest was not entirely deprived of highlight moments for Lopes. In fact, in spite of his lack of quantity, the Brazilian landed the more punishing knocks.
Late in the second round, Lopes stunned and dropped Volkanovski with a right hand. The backhand strike is perhaps his most devastating weapon. He throws it with a very odd, yet effective technique.
The punch can only be considered some hybrid between a traditional straight and an overhand. However, unlike a straight right, the arm and fist are not simply turned over. Furthermore, dissimilar to an overhand, Lopes does not load up on the shot.
Instead, the fighter simply lifts his hand slightly from its typical position, then whips the arm down from the shoulder and elbow. Despite the awkwardness of the attack, he generates a tremendous amount of power and the punch seems to be difficult for opponents to track. There is no doubt the unique ploy will reappear in tonight’s sequel bout.
Fight Predictions
The gameplan for Volkanovski should, for the most part, be a copy and paste. He will likely stretch the distance, circulating Lopes with his repetitive L-steps and lateral footwork.
A heavy dose of leg kicks and jabs is certainly expected. As the superior counter-puncher, Volk also has the luxury of being patient. Lopes will eventually initiate aggressive exchanges, and the Aussie champ can answer with slick combinations.
One factor for the Volkanovski camp to be wary of is the manner in which their fighter disengages from striking trades. When Volk was dropped in the first bout, he pulled back in a straight line. Lopes capitalized on this mistake with his unconventional right hand. The error has also been a fatal flaw in the bouts with Makhachev and Topuria.
In avoiding the recurring blunder, the featherweight great must evade any pressure at an angle, particularly moving away from the backhand of Lopes.
While a Volkanovski victory will come in a very calculated and clean scrap, alternatively, Lopes should attempt to turn this bout into a less technical war. The Brazilian will reap reward from applying pressure to his opponent. Volk will be unable to counter effectively with his back to the cage. By trapping the veteran against the fence, Lopes can begin landing his thunderous right hand.
Another technique the Brazilian fighter should implement is his uppercut. He is very skilled in placing the punch both when on the hunt or as a counter in retreat.
Oddly enough, Lopes deployed very few low kicks in the first meeting. Such a tactic could be a part of his adjustments in the sequel.
Volkanovski stands with a wide base and relies heavily on his footwork. Thus, calf strikes could compromise the Australian’s ability to escape from vulnerable positions, and grant Lopes the opportunity to land a finishing blow.
Main Event Official Pick
Rematches are very often the most difficult bouts to forecast. Lopes will be entering enemy territory, and Volkanovski will be feeding of local support. Yet, on this particular night (or afternoon in Australia), the homecoming party will be crashed and spoiled.
The Lopes camp will implement an aggressive gameplan, which will ultimately culminate in a knockout victory for the young Brazilian. UFC featherweight gold will return to Brazil for the first time since Jose Aldo reigned supreme nearly a decade ago.
Underground Pick: Lopes wins by KO/TKO.
Complete List of Main Card Picks:
Featherweight Title Fight: Alexander Volkanovski (-150 favorite) vs Diego Lopes (+125) – Underground Pick: Winner – Diego Lopes
Lightweight Fight: Dan Hooker (+275) vs. Benoît Saint Denis (-350) – Underground Pick: Winner – Benoît Saint Denis
Lightweight Fight: Rafael Fiziev (+100) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-125) – Underground Pick: Winner – Mauricio Ruffy
Heavyweight Fight: Tai Tuivasa (+275) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-350) – Underground Pick: Winner – Tallison Taixeira
Lightweight Fight: Quillan Salkilld (-1200) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+700) – Underground Pick: Winner – Quillan Salkilld
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